楼市泡沫：中国会例外吗？

上虞楼市  2017-03-27 08:53

[摘要] 3月26日，博鳌亚洲论坛2017年年会的后一场主题为“楼市泡沫：中国会例外吗？”的分论坛现场人员爆满。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">3月26日，博鳌亚洲论坛2017年年会的后一场主题为“楼市泡沫：中国会例外吗？”的分论坛现场人员爆满。

RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">关于中国房地产泡沫破灭的预言10年前就开始了，但一直到2016年，一线城市的房价还在涨，泡沫破灭却一直没有来。
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RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">然而，没有只涨不跌的市场，也没有只涨不破的泡沫。美国次贷危机、日本楼市崩溃前车之鉴不远，中国会是例外吗？

RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">（<<<上虞楼盘汇总>>>）
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RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-WRAP: break-word !important;FONT-SIZE: 18px;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;COLOR: rgb(217,33,66);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">吴晓求：中国楼市泡沫滞后，但不会例外
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RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中国人民大学副校长吴晓求表示，RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;COLOR: rgb(0,122,170);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">中国楼市泡沫不会例外，但是它有一个滞后。
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RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">他指出，现在全球有两大泡沫：一大泡沫是美国的股票市场，这是一大泡沫，近泡沫也在缩小；还有一大泡沫是中国的楼市。
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RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">吴晓求在论坛上还谈到2013年他和ren志强的打赌：

RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;PADDING-LEFT: 10px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: rgb(219,219,219) 3px solid;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">那时候北京四环以里大概是7万左右，我觉得非常离谱，认为不能涨了。
RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px"/>

RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">因为在我的概念里面，一个国家的居民的资产主要部分如果是房子，这个国家很不正常。主要是证券化资产，特别是股票、基金，才是一个正常的国家。
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RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;CLEAR: both;MARGIN: 0px;MIN-HEIGHT: 1em;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">现在过去4年了，一开始我雄心勃勃我觉得我一定赢，因为中国不可能违背这样的规律，到了现在发现我输的概率比较大。

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上虞房天下4月看房团报名>>>
RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">吴晓求认为是RD-WRAP: break-word !important;FONT-SIZE: 16px;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;FONT-FAMILY: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;FONT-VARIANT: normal;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;FONT-STYLE: normal;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;LINE-HEIGHT: 25px;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;COLOR: rgb(0,122,170);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">M2（广义货币供应量）增速太快拉高了房价RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">：

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">从2008年金融危机以来，中国M2的增长速度太快了。巨大的存量M2要购买资产的，不会作为现金状态出现。可是中国金融体系提供的资产非常有限，股票又不敢买，债券也不多，可是钱又不能放在手上，放在手上贬值的速度很快，大家就开始买房子了。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">被问到什么会导致楼崩盘，吴晓求认为，“杠杆如果不下调就会崩盘。”

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">现在12万块钱一平米的房子还要去买，我不认为这是理性的。我们要让它下来，只有一个办法——减少对私人部门的杠杆，如果这点做到我们的泡沫就不会破裂，如果做不到泡沫也会破裂。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">贾康：中国楼市不会重蹈日本覆辙

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">对于吴晓求“说楼市泡沫是M2过大引起”的观点，华夏新供给经济学研究院首席经济学家贾康并不认同：

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中国现在的楼市房市基本格局是冰火两重天，你说因为货币供应过大，为什么它不能够体现在冰的那边，它为什么只体现在火的这边？

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">冰的这边根本不存在泡沫的问题，是库存压力很大的问题，还必须进一步去库存的问题。火的这边会有局部的泡沫破灭或者可以称为回调，这个泡沫破灭不是可以直接和日本的系统性风险似的泡沫破灭相提并论。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">“RD-WRAP: break-word !important;FONT-SIZE: 16px;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;FONT-FAMILY: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;FONT-VARIANT: normal;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;FONT-STYLE: normal;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;LINE-HEIGHT: 25px;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-WRAP: break-word !important;MAX-WIDTH: 100%;COLOR: rgb(0,122,170);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">我不认为中国人会重蹈日本人的前车之鉴，重蹈那个覆辙说明中国人智商不行，我不认为中国人智商不行。RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(62,62,62);FONT: 16px/25px 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">”贾康表示，中国与日本有本质的区别。日本楼市泡沫破灭的时候城镇化率已经达到70%以上，而中国现在只有40%左右。

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